Hive insights

Will Social Movements Transform into Political Parties

It's commonly believed that disappointment with elected officials leads to support for social movements. So we examined exactly how much the October 2023 events and the ongoing war that followed led to feelings of suffocation, anger, and frustration among many groups in Israeli society. It seems that the need for leadership change has never been more necessary, but in practice – not much has changed. The government is the same government, and the elected officials who compose it show great determination, though less in facing the many challenges and more in holding onto their seats. Given that the people still thirst for change, can they get what they want from social movements? And if so – which of the movements that were recently born receive broad enough support from the Israeli public 

The research was conducted and managed by Hive company www.hive-impact.com, which researches and monitors Israeli society using NLP and AI technologies. The research is based on a sample of 2,925 Jewish Israeli respondents across 14 experiments among 14 groups representing different segments in Israeli society (based on gender, religious observance, district, age, voting profile, etc.). The research aims to understand which of the leading movements in Israel receive public support that could serve as a basis for entering the political arena

Brothers and Sisters in Arms - https://www.bnsia.org/aux/ 

The organization that was born with the name Brothers in Arms has been called Brothers and Sisters in Arms – For Democracy since January 2024. The organization entered strongly into Israeli public discourse with the beginning of the protest movement against the judicial reform led by the current government, and defined itself as a protest and volunteer movement founded by reserve soldiers. Until the Black Saturday in October '23, the movement was indeed mainly involved in organizing protests against the government, advocacy, and widespread protest, but changed focus with the outbreak of war. The broad existing infrastructure was dedicated to helping citizens and IDF soldiers in countless ways, including transportation, purchase and distribution of essential military equipment, food shortages, help for evacuees, and more. It's important to note that because of the political colors with which the organization was painted before October '23, many Israeli citizens still associate it with one side of the political map today, and this is well reflected in the research. 61% of participants with a 'left-wing voters' political profile expressed support for the movement's entry into the national political space, as did 40% of those defined as 'liberal center-right'. The movement's overall support percentage among all participants, across all their political shades, stands at 21%

Reservists' Wives - https://www.forum-neshotmil.co.il/about-us 

The organization was established in November 2023, and currently numbers over 6,000 women from families where one spouse was called up for reserve duty. In fact, this movement represents about 100,000  families who constitute about 1% of Israel's population. We're talking about 100,000 families whose life routine hasn't really continued, or at least suffered significant damage. The organization's main activity and central goal is promoting policies for recognition and appreciation of reserve families as fully mobilized families, and creating a comprehensive support safety net for them. The fact that this is a movement not really identified with politics, and carries a flag that many can gather under, is also reflected in the research results. We can see an almost identical support percentage among coalition voters and coalition disappointed voters, or an identical support percentage (30%) among those defined as 'left-wing voters' and 'disappointed left'. The overall support percentage for the movement stands at 20%

The Security Experts - https://idsf.org.il 

The Security Experts movement was established by senior officials in the security system who believe in the Zionist way, and promote a message that most Israelis can easily connect with: Israel's security must be based on its ability to defend itself independently and actively prevent the development of threats to its security. One might perhaps argue with the first part of this message, considering the much-needed assistance from Israel's allies during the past year for example, but it's harder to argue with the following statistic: 35% of those defined as 'coalition voters' expressed support for the Security Experts movement. Almost double their general support rate - 19%

Tzav 9 

The "Tzav 9" organization became known for its activity after the outbreak of the 'Iron Swords' war. In fact, its sole declared purpose is preventing the entry of trucks loaded with humanitarian equipment into the Gaza Strip, as part of a perception that this only "fuels" Hamas and harms Israel's ability to defeat the terrorist organization. The organization declares that everyone active in it comes "with the baggage collected since October 7th, with a range of different opinions, and a desire to act as one," but the research results definitely correspond with the general sentiment in the people. Most support comes from 'Ultra-Orthodox party voters', 'coalition voters - both new and old', while the general support rate stands at 14%

Im Tirtzu - https://imti.org.il

Since its establishment in 2006, the "Im Tirtzu" movement considers itself the largest Zionist movement in Israel, working to strengthen and promote Zionist values in Israeli society. With dozens of branches and representations in universities and colleges throughout the country, they aspire to train the future generation of state leadership and build a Zionist elite. A central part of the activity is dedicated to fighting the phenomenon of delegitimization of the State of Israel, which has become very relevant since October 7th. Naturally, 'left-wing voters' or 'disappointed left' expressed minimal support for the movement, whose main support (12%) comes from the 'coalition voters' sector

The Protest Movement 

 the protest movement is probably the most identified organization, with several familiar "faces". This mainly refers to Shikma Bressler, Moshe Radman, Ami Dror, and Ran Har Nevo. The movement made headlines in January 2023 upon the announcement of the judicial reform, which was interpreted by protesters as an attempt at regime overthrow. The main protest centers were marked at the intersection of Kaplan and Rabin Road in Tel Aviv, which probably contributed to how the movement is perceived by the general public. The research results show clearly support from 'left-wing voters' (44%) and 'disappointed left' (21%), but an overall support rate of only 11%

The Zionist Majority Movement - https://www.facebook.com/ZionMovement2048/ 

The Zionist Majority is a civil movement trying to promote unifying messages of one people, with a shared purpose opposed to that of the zealous and extreme margins. The movement's leaders aim to deal with the challenge of internal division that has been particularly eroding Israeli society in the past year, by appealing to what they define as the large, moral, and sane Zionist majority. The movement receives its highest support rate (15%) from 'new coalition voters', while the overall support rate stands at 6%.

The Fourth Quarter Movement - https://q4israel.org.il/ 

The movement defines itself as working to implement politics of broad agreements instead of politics of submission. It was established in 2022 following the crisis that peaked with Israel experiencing five election cycles within three years, and its goal is to bring about Israel's prosperity as a Jewish, democratic, liberal, and traditional entity that benefits all its citizens. Despite the general messages – and perhaps because of them – the research results show that the movement doesn't have broad support. The overall support rate stands at only 3%

Standing Together Movement - https://www.standing-together.org 

The people of the 'Standing Together' movement tell about themselves that they come from different places, with different identities, but shared interests. Their main declared struggle is for a secure future in the country, a system that "counts everyone", for life with dignity, social justice, and peace. The movement maintains a significant social media presence, emphasizing the fact that it has Arab and Jewish activists, and holds publicized meetings. 6% of 'left-wing voters' support the movement, but here too – the overall support rate stands at only 3%

In conclusion, it's clear that the support rate of different audiences for social movements is also a function of social media presence, media exposure, etc. But to distill the sentiment that these movements evoke, it's always important to research their support rate among the average Israeli , and of course – broken down by political tendencies. Regarding gender distribution, we can see that Brothers in Arms and Reservists' Wives movements receive significantly more support among women, while movements like The Security Experts and Im Tirtzu are stronger among men

Considering that almost all the movements researched are only a year or two old at most, it can be said that at least some of them have already managed to gather considerable support from the Israeli public 

Can this fill the need that has emerged in the past year and replace the disappointment with official elected representatives? Not sure. But it is certain that there are strong channels here for expressing the voice and will of the people

The research was conducted by Hive company (www.hive-impact.com) which researches and monitors Israeli society using NLP and AI technologies