Hive insights

The Path to Victory in Elections Passes Through Efficient Work with Geographic Data

In recent years, many political parties have transferred most of their explanation and influence activities to social networks. From a targeting and measurement perspective, this is indeed the right arena to operate in. However, alongside the digital space, there is another activity arena that is essential and effective for parties - the geographic arena. The ability to reach population segmentation based on residential location down to the level of clusters and neighborhoods. This type of activity is essential, especially - but not only - during election periods and for effective ground activity that often determines election results.

The 2024 Trump campaign made proper use of geographic reach capabilities - for example: In states like Florida, the campaign divided the state into multiple sub-groups and identified communities where targeted messages could attract swing voters, some of whom were identified as traditional Democratic voters. This included outreach plans for characterized residential areas - African American men, Jewish households, and Spanish-language advertising targeting Cuban and Venezuelan voters. Everything was based on area division based on geographic data.

Another way the Trump campaign gathered geographic data was through their mobile app - Truth Social (formerly America First). One and a half million people downloaded the app. Campaign managers treated the user community as a huge sample while extracting deep information about the audience - including geographic information that taught Trump's team how to create differential messages for different areas. The app collected data on user attitudes, emotions, and behaviors, including geographic data, in order to allow the campaign to create detailed psychological profiles of voters segmented by residential areas. These data were used to embed targeted messaging and influence strategies for voter clusters.

Campaign managers also used the app to conduct regular surveys about political preferences, information sources, and hot topics that might influence voter decision-making.

There is evidence that the app requested access to users' contact lists, thereby potentially collecting information about millions of additional people - beyond those who downloaded the app.

What is the Appropriate Use of Geographic Data?

Campaign Focusing - Parties use geo-spatial analysis to tailor strategies to local needs. This allows them to:

- Focus on critical areas such as swing states or districts

- Customize messages according to regional priorities

- Allocate resources more efficiently

Voter Analysis - GIS tools help parties analyze voter demographics and behavior:

- Identify areas controlled by specific age groups or socio-economic classes

- Determine locations where people tend to be more engaged

- Understand hot topics and important trends in different areas

Improving Reach - Primarily to identify geographic locations where it is worthwhile to focus marketing resources

District and Voting Place Division - Geographic activity allows for deep understanding of different populations in various neighborhoods. This deep understanding is important for creating an on-the-ground strategy for election periods.

Predictive Model Creation - This can be done primarily by creating heat maps showing election participation forecasts and identifying trends in regional voting patterns - down to the cluster and neighborhood level.

By leveraging these geographic data strategies, political parties can make more informed decisions, allocate resources efficiently, tailor messages to specific voter groups, and thereby improve their chances of electoral success.