Hive insights

What are "forgotten sectors" in political campaigns and why are they important

In their imagination, politicians and political campaign managers reach every potential vote and every group of voters. In practice, there are always quite a few forgotten sectors. This refers to groups of voters who feel that politicians or the mainstream policies they promote - ignore or neglect them. The issue is that sometimes this is a segment of the population that can make a difference, as was revealed during Donald Trump's 2016 campaign 

The strategy of his campaign managers included focusing on identifying and appealing to these voter segments, and it ended with Trump entering the White House. So how do you actually locate forgotten sectors

  • Study voting patterns to find groups with low voter turnout. This is  achieved through social listening tools, and using geographic data of relevant populations broken down by their past voting. Right down to the level of specific neighborhoods and villages. It enables you to identify those populations that abstain from voting in elections
  • Use demographic and economic data to find areas where residents are experiencing economic or social hardship
  • Use social listening tools and focus groups to understand the concerns of different voter sectors. The rationale here is that if we know which issues are important to them, we can get them to move out of the passive stance they've become accustomed to.

Hive uses a combination of AI-based listening tools alongside geo-data capabilities

Which sectors are more commonly identified with the forgotten segment?

  • Voters living in villages or small towns, dealing with economic difficulties.
  • Working-class voters living in areas affected by de-industrialization.
  • Voters without academic degrees who don't have a guaranteed livelihood path.
  • Socially conservative voters for whom cultural changes might increase feelings of alienation.
  • Specifically in Israel, middle-class voters may also perceive themselves as forgotten, especially when they feel the absence of a leader or other factor representing their interests.

What does the appeal to forgotten sectors typically include once they've been identified? For example:

  • Ensuring the inclusion of political rallies held in areas associated with economic hardship
  • Creating messages around anti-establishment issues
  • In USA - Spreading promises about bringing back manufacturing jobs in relevant areas, and supporting struggling industries
  • Emphasizing cultural and social issues important to those voters

In fact, Trump's 2016  campaign included exactly these tactics. The ability to leverage data analysis to identify the right messages, and target them to forgotten sectors in several key states, contributed greatly to his surprising victory